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CRC PUBLICATIONS |
Modelling Victorian Annual Rainfall Data
Ratnasingham Srikanthan, Tom McMahon, Mark Thyer, George Kuczera
Publication Type:
Working Document
This is a publication of the current CRC for Catchment Hydrology
CRC Program:
Climate Variability
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Publication Keywords:
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Abstract / Summary:
Annual rainfall data from twenty stations with long records were analysed with regard to wet and dry spells and long-term persistence. Small changes in the means and standard deviations over time were observed from the time series plots of the data.
The Hidden State Markov (HSM) model was fitted to the data and the results indicated the absence of two state persistence in the data. One hundred replicates of annual rainfall data were generated using the HSM and the widely used first order autoregressive model.
The autoregressive model preserved the moments of the data better than the HSM model as these were directly input to the model. The low rainfall sums were satisfactorily reproduced by both models. A further study is in progress using a number of stations selected across Australia and carrying out the HSM calibration with different starting months.
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Centre Office:
CRC for Catchment Hydrology
Dept of Civil Engineering
Building 60
Monash University Vic 3800
Tel: +61 3 9905 2704
Fax: +61 3 9905 5033
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