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CRC PUBLICATIONS |
A Review of Real-Time Flood Forecasting Methods
Ratnasingham Srikanthan
Jim Elliott
Geoff Adams
Publication Type:
Technical Report
This is a publication of the initial CRC for Catchment Hydrology
CRC Program:
Flood Hydrology (Previous CRC)
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Publication Keywords:
Rainfall/Runoff Relationship
Modelling (Hydrological)
Flood Forecasting
Flood Hydrographs
Flood Warnings
Catchment Areas
Data Handling
Floods and Flooding
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Abstract / Summary:
A Review of Real-Time Flood Forecasting Methods - A Report as part of Project D4: Development of a Real-Time Flood Forecasting Model
Flood forecasting and warning systems are a cost effective means of reducing the damaging impact on floods. This report presents the results of a review of flood forecasting methods as the first phase of a project to develop an improved method for the real time forecasting of floods for use by Australian forecasting agencies.
Rainfall-runoff models and flood routing methods were reviewed. A wide range of rainfall-runoff models are available. It was concluded that the use of some form of simple soil moisture accounting model was the most promising approach to use. Real-time updating has been shown to clearly improve the accuracy of forecasting and some form of automatic, rather than subjective, updating is preferred. Two existing rainfall-runoff models; Mike11 and the Alabama Rainfall-Runoff Model were selected for further application, along with further development of the Australian Water Balance Model linked with either URBS or RORB, along with some form of real-time updating algorithm. Two adaptive unit hydrograph methods have also been recommended to capitalise on the large bank of unit hydrographs already in use.
Flood routing was seen as a relatively straightforward problem. The choice from among the many methods available is determined by the accurcay required and the available data. It is suggested that the simple Muskingum method be the procedure to use as a first step, moving to a variable parameter technique such as the Variable Parameter Muskingum Cunge method if greater accuracy is required.
The next phase of the project will involve direct comparison of the performance of each method on test data for local catchments. It is recommended that the project works toward the development of some form of generalised modelling framework suited to supporting teh real-time application of a range of models as is done in a number of systems identified as part of the review.
This report is not currently available for downloading. Printed copies can be obtained from the Centre Office
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Centre Office:
CRC for Catchment Hydrology
Dept of Civil Engineering
Building 60
Monash University Vic 3800
Tel: +61 3 9905 2704
Fax: +61 3 9905 5033
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