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CRC PUBLICATIONS |
Generation of Annual Rainfall Data for Australian Stations
Ratnasingham Srikanthan,
Tom McMahon,
Geoff Pegram,
George Kuczera,
Mark Thyer
Publication Type:
Working Document
This is a publication of the current CRC for Catchment Hydrology
CRC Program:
Climate Variability
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Publication Keywords:
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Abstract / Summary:
Even though generated annual rainfall data have little direct application, the modelling of annual rainfall data serves two purposes. Firstly, it enables the understanding of the stochastic nature of the annual rainfall data and its implications for long periods of low and high rainfall. This understanding is necessary to manage water supply systems during low rainfall periods. Secondly, any stochastic model should be able to maintain its statistical characteristics at different time scales and a good annual rainfall model allows one to disaggregate the generated annual rainfall data into monthly data. In this case, the annual data becomes the input to various disaggregation schemes. The work reported here forms part of Project 5.2 - National Data Bank of Stochastic Climate and Streamflow Models - of the Climate Variability Program. The review (Srikanthan and McMahon, 2000) carried out as part of the project recommended an autoregressive time series model or the Hidden State Markov (HSM) model to generate
annual rainfall data. In this report, these two models are applied to 44 stations located in various parts of Australia. The performance of the models is assessed using a number of basic and other statistics. Based on this, recommendations are made as to the appropriate model for the generation of annual data.
The effect of parameter uncertainty is not considered in this report, as the aim of the report is to compare the performance of different models. It is assumed that the parameters of the models estimated from the historic data are the true values and the sampling variability is ignored. Once an appropriate model is chosen, the parameter uncertainty will be incorporated later.
This working document is available for purchase from the Centre Office and will be available for downloding March 2002.
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Centre Office:
CRC for Catchment Hydrology
Dept of Civil Engineering
Building 60
Monash University Vic 3800
Tel: +61 3 9905 2704
Fax: +61 3 9905 5033
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